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Who will win the United Kingdom parliamentary election?
One of these men will be Prime Minister after the next election

UK Politics has always been interesting to me. I enjoy how their system parallels our own, yet also remains distinct. The upcoming general election, which must be held not later than this June, will be a very exciting time.

A few months ago, everyone following British politics and examining the polls would have told you that Conservative leader David Cameron would certainly soon be Prime Minister with a large majority government. Recently, however, missteps by the Tory leader and consistent attacks by Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown have cost Cameron his large lead. A YouGov poll released on Wednesday shows the Labour Party trailing the Conservatives by only four percentage points. At first glance, one would think that with a four-point lead on Election Day, Cameron would be headed to 10 Downing Street with a hung (minority) parliament. However, there is speculation that if the combined Labour and Liberal Democrat seats outnumber the Conservative seats, they may well end up cooperating, either unofficially or in a full coalition, keeping Brown in office. Apparently, Labour has been having meetings with the Lib Dems to discuss policy concessions.

I don't think that Cameron will win his majority government. The reason he has been ahead in the polls all this time is not that Britons particularly like him, but rather they dislike him less than they dislike Gordon Brown and Labour. I just don't see Cameron energizing voters enough for them to come out and support him to the point where he could win a parliamentary majority. I would not be at all surprised if he won a plurality of seats, but that may not be enough to make him Prime Minister.

I'll be following this election over the next few months. If I read anything of interest, I'll be sure to post it here.

2010-03-10 06:15
Will Harper call a fall election?
As we all know, this year's federal budget did not contain either the tax increases or the large-scale spending cuts many believe are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the deficit. Eventually - probably next year - the government is going to have to do one or the other, and either way, the Conservatives' poll numbers will plummet. None of the opposition parties would be in their right mind if they voted to support said budget, and the Conservatives would almost certainly lose the resulting election.

The way around this, of course, would be for the Prime Minister to call an early election, this fall. Toronto Star columnist Jim Travers recently suggested that this might just happen. By doing this, assuming the Conservatives win the election, of course, Harper would be able to govern with a renewed mandate. Chances are they would lose many seats, but the possibility remains that they would form a reduced minority government. If that were the case, it is unlikely that the opposition, fearing a voter backlash, would be willing to force an election by voting down the budget only a few months later. By the time the next election came along, everyone would have forgotten about the whole thing. At least, that's the idea.

I'm in no way making a prediction here, but I think it's very possible there will be a fall election. Look at it from Harper’s perspective: if it means the difference between losing the 20-or-so seats polls are predicting, or being removed from office altogether, he will choose the former. Neither option would be particularly appetizing for him, but if he wants to remain Prime Minister, he may well do what he has to do.

2010-03-09 03:30
New logo, new website - no new ideas from the Hudak PC's

The Ontario Liberals unveiled the priorities and agenda for the coming year in the Throne Speech yesterday. It includes, as part of the Open Ontario Plan;


-A new Water Opportunities Act to take advantage of the province’s expertise in clean-water technology to create more, good jobs for Ontario families;
-A new Ontario Online Institute to give students access to the best professors in top university programs from their home computers;
-New legislation to improve accountability in our publicly-funded health care system;
-Improving services for patients by encouraging health professionals to work together; and
-Capitalizing on north-western Ontario’s chromite deposits, while working with Northerners and Aboriginal communities and continuing to protect half of the northern Boreal Forest (chromite is a key ingredient in stainless steel).

The five-year plan includes several initiatives already underway:

- A tax reform package, which will create nearly 600,000 new Ontario jobs;
-The Green Energy Act, which will create up to 50,000 jobs;
-$32-billion investment in roads, bridges, public transit and energy retrofits for schools that is creating and sustaining over 300,000 jobs;
- Full-day learning for four- and five-year olds, starting at schools across the province this September; and
- A strategy to make Toronto one of the world’s leading financial centres

And what was Tim Hudak's response?

Showing up late to the speech, missing Oh Canada, and then heckling the representative of the Queen, The Honourable David Onley while he delivered the speech. This was a shameful display for a man who wishes to be the next Premier.

What is also shameful is that Hudak continues to attack the government plan to move Ontario forward, without putting forward any ideas of his own. But don't take my word for it:

Go to the Ontario PC website and find me any indication what Tim Hudak wants to see in this year's budget? Would he sell assets if he was in charge? Would he cut any programs? Cut taxes? How about raise them? I honestly have no idea. (Robert Silver, Globe and Mail, Feb 20)

Outside of platitudes...Mr. Hudak made little effort to explain what he would do differently. (Adam Radwanski, Globe and Mail, March 8)

What a PC government would do...remains a mystery. (Tony Spears, Ottawa Citizen, March 6)

And even PC's themselves are admitting they have nothing to stand on:

"It’s a byelection, it’s not about policy and platform” (Beth Graham, Ottawa West-Nepean by-election candidate, Ottawa Citizen, March 6)

The policy void even extends to the grassroots, which the PC's always like to crow is the core of the party:

Harvey Prudhomme, of Sarnia...declined to discuss potential policy, Gurmit Singh, from the Greater Toronto Area...couldn’t or wouldn’t name any concrete policies he hoped to see implented (Ottawa Citizen, March 6)

And the hypocrisy of his party campaigning against the HST, when the PC's (and Hudak himself) have both spoke in favour of it, and never committed to actually getting rid of it.

Hudak said they would continue to fight the tax, but could not repeal it (Metro Ottawa, March 8)

Making the HST the centrepiece of their campaign has its own challenges, not least because key Conservatives support it. Federal Tories led by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, a former provincial cabinet minister — whom Hudak supported when he ran to replace Eves as Tory leader — and a bevy of Conservative luminaries including Harris and Bob Runciman have spoken in favour of harmonization. So did Hudak at one time. (Mohammed Adam, Ottawa Citizen, March 5)

Once the HST is implemented, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to undo. (Lisa MacLeod, MPP for Nepean-Carleton and the Revenue Critic for the PC's, National Post, November 19)

"…we understand how that (single sales tax) can help the economy.” —Tim Hudak, MPP (Niagara-West Glanbrook), March 24, 2009


“I agree that there’s little sense in allowing two separate governments to apply two separate taxes and policies and collect two separate groups of sales taxes.” —Tim Hudak, MPP (Niagara-West Glanbrook), April 23, 2009


"In principle, we think it's something that should occur." —Former MPP and PC leader Bob Runciman, (Leeds-Grenville), March 25, 2009


"…I am not saying that harmonization ultimately is a bad idea." —Peter Shurman, MPP (Thornhill), March 24, 2009


"I think right now (people) think of a harmonized tax as being an increased tax, you know, period, full stop. That isn't what it is." —John Tory (former Ontario Conservative leader), November 14, 2007


"Moving to a harmonized sales tax is very good for the economy and it's certainly going to help with our business competitiveness… It's in the best interests of the economy in the long term." —Janet Ecker (former PC Minister of Education), Toronto Sun, September 22, 2009

Tim Hudak and the PC's are the party of anger, nothing more. The people of Ontario deserve better, and have been making their voices heard by re-electing Liberal MPP's in every held seat since Hudak became leader.

2010-03-08 08:53
Ottawa West-Nepean

I was very proud to be a part of the team that helped send Bob Chiarelli back to Queen's Park.
Much has been made about the relative closeness of the race, but from my perspective, the end result was basically on track. While I must admit the PC's did a better job of GOTV then I thought they would do, us getting 43% of the vote is basically what we had on track, somewhere in the low to mid 40's. Considering the by-election as a whole only had 33% turnout, us getting over 50% of Liberal votes from the last election out is a testament to the strength of the campaign. In a swing riding like OW-N, it is undoubtedly true that the possibility did exist that we could lose the seat, unless we ran a strong campaign. Lo and behold, we ran a good solid positive campaign (unlike the constant attacks of the Beth Graham campaign, I heard more then a few "Toronto Liberal" jokes at the victory party)
In issue I do have to mention in regards to turnout was accessibility issues. The poll I was working on to close out the night had horrible turnout, only 27 voters, in large part because the polling station was not accessible. The poll was largely made up of middle to lower income voters, and lots of new Canadians, so it was natural Liberal territory (indeed, out of the 27 votes, 24 were for Bob, Beth Graham was totally shut out of the poll, with second place going to the "legendary" John Turmel with 2 votes!) but the polling station was at least a 15 minute walk away, so the whole process of going to the station, getting registered (with so many new Canadians and first time voters, a lot wouldn't have been on the voters list), voting, and getting back home could have easily taken 45 minutes, which is simply unacceptable, and was probably a big turn off for many voters in this poll. I spoke with Glen Murray at the victory party, who had a similar experience, saying he was at a largely seniors poll that had the polling station 6 blocks away, and similarly saw terrible turnout. While obviously not going to make any crazy allegation of Elections Ontario being biased (after all, I'm not a federal Conservative) for the next time around, they must do a better job of ensuring all voters have an accessible vote.
Reading the reaction of various Tories, it's also amusing the read the subtext that they might have won had Beth Graham not have been a bad candidate, apparently she is thinking about running again, I say more power to her.
Ultimately, a good hard campaign that returned a Liberal victory in a swing riding (also interesting to see the Tories start to call it a "safe Liberal seat" post-facto when they were hyping it up as a swing riding they could win at the start of the campaign) that demonstrates the PC strategy of hyperfocusing on the HST (which came up maybe twice on the doors I knocked on) and negative attacks without any policy vision is still a non-starter.
2010-03-06 11:19
Ottawa Citizen blog picks up on Beth Graham CFRA interview
http://communities.canada.com/OTTAWACITIZEN/blogs/greaterottawa/archive/2010/03/01/the-ottawa-west-nepean-candidates-bail-out.aspx?CommentPosted=true#commentmessage

This is a bit of self promotion here, but I'm pleased to see this video, which shows that Beth Graham is just not up to the task of being MPP for Ottawa West-Nepean. The rest of the article gives some good examples of just how much in shambles the Graham's media campaign is. Here's a direct link to the YouTube video, for those interested:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqkfThv9ZqU
2010-03-03 02:16
Local PC's jumping ship on Beth Graham?
From what I have heard, the PC's are regretting somewhat booking the AGM to be in Ottawa this coming weekend, on the heels of a likely PC defeat in the swing riding of Ottawa West-Nepean. Beth Graham's campaign has been a policy free zone (her newest trick to try and distract voters from her lack of actual policy and platform has been to add "Toronto" in front of "Liberal" whenever possible, as heated as the Leafs-Sens rivalry is, I doubt Toronto-bashing can take the place of actual deliverable policies and platforms in the minds of the voters) and her local campaign has been lacking. Her "rally" on last weekend drew only 40 or so people, mostly bored staffers, and they only sent a single canvassing team out after, while the Chiarelli campaign hit 60+ polls last Saturday.

I asked a friend of mine who holds a high-level position within the OPCYA if they would be going out to West-Nepean on Thursday, and they responded in the negative, saying that "That campaign doesn't look like a winner." John Baird and Mike Patton have delivered cameos on the campaign trail at best, and a look at the endorsements page on Bob Chiarelli's website reveals a significant blow:


"Bob Chiarelli's record of accomplishment is significant. Our community would be tremendously well served with Bob at Queen's Park.”

Jim Durrell
Former Mayor of Ottawa

Durrell has long standing ties to the Ottawa conservative movement, being part of the right-wing of city council while serving as a councillor, was elected mayor on a centre-right platform in 1985, and donated to the party in 1996. For him to cross party lines and endorse Chiarelli for mayor is a serious blow to Beth Graham's credibility as a serious conservative candidate. Expect lots of PC voters to stay home on e-day
2010-03-02 07:35
Beth Graham brings in the socially conservative reinforcements
Just learned from Twitter that Tory MPP Garfield Dunlop is in town to support Beth Graham for the Ottawa West-Nepean by-election. Ottawa West-Nepean is of course represented federally by Tory MP John Baird, who was outed as gay by Toronto Centre PC candidate Pam Taylor during the recent campaign. Wonder how he feels about Dunlop coming around considering this is his record:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0922/p06s01-woam.html


Garfield Dunlop is busy on the hustings, giving the same spiel at every door in his suburban Ontario district.

"I've got some literature here on same-sex marriage," says the avuncular politician, pressing a pamphlet into the palm of a white-haired woman who smiles and motions him into her home. "It's a sin," he continues, climbing into the foyer. "And it could tear apart the fabric of our society."

Beth Graham's hidden agenda indeed.
2010-02-24 02:47
What are they teaching our kids these days? Beth Graham's hidden agenda
A glance at Facebook shows that the Ontario PC Campus Association shows that they are hosting two "Ideological Training Sessions" this Saturday. The one in Ottawa, which is linked a Beth Graham canvassing blitz that evening, has some "special guests", including Derek Fildebrandt of the Canadian Taxpayer Federation, and
Scott Reid, MP for Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington.

Apparently the speaker from the CTF will give a talk on economics, while Scott Reid will discuss "Political Rights and Values".

Let's take a look at CTFnomics:

-While the McGuinty government has cut billion dollar green tech deals with India, and the Green Energy Act will create thousands of jobs, the CTF refers to "so-called 'climate change'" (CTF commentary, August 19, 2008)

-Opposed Dalton McGuinty standing up for Ontario and demanding the next redistribution of federal seats fairly represent Ontario (CTF commentary, January 10, 2008)

-Loudly supported the reduction of public health care and a greater role for privatization of health services and delivery (CTF commentaries, November 29, 2007, September 17, 2006)

-Opposed in-vitro fertilization treatments, in particular for "single moms and lesbians" (CTF News, September 09, 2009)

-Described Ontario economic policies as "Soviet Ontario" (CTF News, May 5, 2009)

-Advocated for a regressive flat tax, which they have "long supported" (News release, June 08, 2009)

And let's look at the record of MP Scott Reid

-His talk may be about "rights", but that won't include the right of a woman to choose, Reid is vocally anti-choice and supported Bill C-391, a backdoor attempt to criminalize abortion, and served alongside Cheryl Gallant in the Canadian Alliance PC caucus, who compared a woman's right to choose with terrorism, saying it was "absolutely no different". (Abortion Rights Coalition of Canada Report, August 2007)

-We knew the Beth Graham campaign and the PC's had issues with French, but Scott Reid has a long record of anti-bilingualism activism, saying during the 2004 federal campaign that a Conservative government might change the Official Languages Act and weaken bilingualism requirements. (CTV news, June 1, 2004)

-Supported the extremist Randy Hillier for PC leadership, whose policy positions have been outlined many of a time in this blog.

-Was a founding member of the Lanark Landowners Association. Landowners Associations have opposed everything from environmental legislation and action and climate change (the Glengarry area association had a showing of a climate change denial documentary in August 2008) to government action to ensure the food we eat is safe.

Given the total lack of policy and platform Beth Graham has put forward, is the climate change denying, anti-public health care, anti-choice, anti-French positions put forward by the CTF and Scott Reid given to pump up Tory youth her real agenda?
2010-02-24 11:17
Did a Red Tory revolt push Greg Medulun out as PC media director?
The PC's sent out a release to the press gallery earlier today that Greg Medulun, the director of media and stakeholder relations, has stepped down and is returning to the director of communications job at Fallsview Casino he held before joining Hudak's office.

As media relations director, Medulun was responsible for much of the messaging and tactics of the Hudak PC's over the last little while, including the hyperfocus on the HST and some of the rougher edged moves such as the QP walkouts and the protest which led to Randy Hillier and Bill Murdoch being removed from the Legislature.

Given the poor results the PC's have had under the Hudak regime so far, (running an angry and unsuccessful campaign in St. Paul's, getting crushed in Toronto Centre, and now looking down the barrel at another defeat in the critical riding of Ottawa West-Nepean) and in particular, the very negative press which emerged following the PC tactics outside, and particularly inside the Legislature during the last sitting. Many in the caucus, particularly those on the Red Tory wing of the party and the more experienced MPP's, including such high profile figures such as Deputy Leader Christine Elliott, Education critic Elizabeth Witmer, and Chief Whip/Finance Critic/longest serving PC MPP, had expressed displeasure with the rough and tumble tactics of the Hudak/Hillier axis within the party, whose strategy was promoted by Medulun. With the Tories looking at a probable loss in an important swing riding of OW-N, could caucus unrest push more Hudakites out of the way as the more moderate wing of the party calls for a re-think of strategy?
2010-02-23 05:03
Tim Hudak gets it wrong in Ottawa West-Nepean
PC leader Tim Hudak was speaking with an Ottawa-area radio station (interesting that it was him and not Beth Graham doing the talking, I guess they don't want a repeat of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqkfThv9ZqU) but it seems like Hudak is just as backwards on the issues as Beth Graham.

Beth Graham and the Tim Hudak PC's have tried to make hay out of allegations that the Liberals have underfunded the Queensway-Carleton, which is totally false. The McGuinty Liberals have increased funding for Queensway Carleton Hospital by 57.8%—a total increased investment of over $40 million since 2003, which has resulted in better access and lower wait times for local families and seniors. Additionally, the McGuinty Government has already committed to an increase in health care funding in the next provincial budget. Compare this to the record of the Beth Graham and Tim Hudak PC's, which includes slashing health care budgets and attempting to shut down Montfort Hospital, the only francophone hospital in the province.

Hudak also tried to accuse the Champlain Local Health Integration Network of signing an untendered contract with Courtyard Group, despite the fact that the Champlain LHIN informed Hudak last week via letter that the contract he referenced was, in fact, awarded through a competitive bidding process. Facts continuted to be a problem for Hudak when he said that the HST was going to raise taxes, when in fact his party voted against the tax reform package which saw 93% of Ontario taxpayers recieve a tax cut. Hudak is playing pure politics on the tax issue, ignoring the support the PC's have showed for the HST:

"…we understand how that (single sales tax) can help the economy.” —Tim Hudak, MPP (Niagara-West Glanbrook), March 24, 2009

“I agree that there’s little sense in allowing two separate governments to apply two separate taxes and policies and collect two separate groups of sales taxes.” —Tim Hudak, MPP (Niagara-West Glanbrook), April 23, 2009

"In principle, we think it's something that should occur." —Bob Runciman, MPP (Leeds-Grenville), March 25, 2009

"…I am not saying that harmonization ultimately is a bad idea." —Peter Shurman, MPP (Thornhill), March 24, 2009

Beth Graham and the Tim Hudak PC's are offering nothing in the way of policies and solutions for the big issues facing Ontario, only flip-flopping, policy confusion, and fear-mongering. Tim Hudak and Beth Graham are unable—or unwilling—to tell fact from fiction.
2010-02-22 02:58
Beth Graham et le Parti progressiste-conservateur de l'Ontario ne se font pas de soucie pour les francophones en Ontario
Une décennie après le Parti progressiste conservateur de l'Ontario voulait fermer Montfort, le parti n'a aucun respect pour les centaines de milliers de citoyens de langue française de la province et Beth Graham semble de suivre cette tradition. Quelques chiffres intéressants:

-Ottawa est l'une des communautés les plus bilingues, et Ottawa-Ouest-Nepean, abrite des milliers de citoyens de langue française.

-Le nombre de mots en français sur le site de Beth Graham: 0

-Le nombre de mots en français sur le Parti progressiste conservateur du site Web de l'Ontario: 0

-Le nombre de mots en français sur le site de Peter Shurman, porte-parole aux Affaires francophones PC: 0

Nombre de PC Députés qui ont des sites Web bilingues: 0

Le PC a un héritage de l'hostilité envers la communauté franco-ontarienne.

Ancien chef du Parti progressiste conservateur de l'Ontario et député Bob Runciman :

« Le député provincial de Leeds, Bob Runciman, a écrit [à l’APEC] une lettre de soutien le mois dernier [...] M. Runciman sera le conférencier invité de ce groupe de lutte en faveur de la préservation de l’anglais, à sa réunion mensuelle, le 27 avril, selon Garner. » (Kingston Whig-Standard, le 11 avril 1987)

« Il est extrêmement important que les différents groupes qui s’opposent aux services en français s’organisent, a dit le député provincial progressiste-conservateur de l’Ontario Robert Runciman. » (The Ottawa Citizen, le 6 novembre 1989)

« M. Runciman aurait contribué à soulever l’opinion contre le bilinguisme dans la région ; 1 400 personnes se sont joints à la cause de l’APEC à Brockville et 10 000 autres ailleurs dans la province. » (The Toronto Star, le 16 août 1987)

« ‘La manière dont Peterson présente et met en œuvre les services en français dépasse l’intention de la plupart des députés (qui ont voté pour le projet de loi)’, a dit Runciman. Il a cité des annuaires téléphoniques et des publications de Queen’s Park en français comme des exemples de mesures non nécessaires. » (The Kingston Whig-Standard, le 15 août 1987)

Runciman a défendu la fermeture du radiodiffuseur public de langue française de l’Ontario :
« Le fonctionnement de La Chaîne nous coûte, à nous les contribuables, environ 35 millions de dollars par an [...] Pourquoi ont-ils besoin de ce geste symbolique qui nous coûte des millions et des millions de dollars provenant des contribuables et qui ne donne presque rien ? » (Bob Runciman, le 28 octobre 1993)

« Ils essaient d’attirer à peu près 185 000 Franco-Ontariens. C’est leur public [...] On dépense des sommes considérables de l’argent des contribuables pour une chaîne qui ne répond vraiment pas à un besoin significatif dans la province. » (Bob Runciman, Hansard de l’Ontario, le 30 octobre 1991)
2010-02-22 02:19
Does Beth Graham want illegal machine guns in Ottawa West-Nepean?



Because her would be caucus mate Randy Hillier does.

Beth Graham served as President of the Leslie Park Community Association and the Nepean Federation of Community Associations, so she must have fairly strong feelings about the safety of her community. So how can she justify running for a Progressive Conservative Party which defends this:

http://www.kenoradailyminerandnews.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?archive=true&e=1850411

Bruce Montague was convicted of 26 firearms offences last year, including illegal possession of over 200 guns, and such wholesome family activities as altering semiautomatic firearms to fire automatically, removal of serial numbers, manufacture of silencers and disregard of storage regulations regarding loaded weapons. Montague's lawyer in the case was Doug Christie, a far-right political activist most well known for leading the separatist Western Block Party, and acting as a lawyer for a long list of Nazi war criminals, Neo-Nazis, anti-semites, and white supremacists, including Ernst Zündel, Paul Fromm, David Ahenakew, and many others.

So of course it should come as no surprise that PC Labour Critic, Tim Hudak supporter, and PC MPP Randy Hillier has jumped to his defense, speaking at a rally for Montague a couple days ago.

http://www.brucemontague.ca/html/0381.html
As her interview on CFRA demonstrated (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqkfThv9ZqU) Graham has a precious lack of policy understanding or platform, and now with her party coming out in support of criminals and jumping in bed with the far-right, it is clear that Ottawa West-Nepean deserves better.
2010-02-20 06:01
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